How Full is Ireland?
In a mobile world a Census is so 1800’s.
If you wanted a live snapshot of Ireland’s population, then the most effective way to achieve that in a highly mobile world, must be to count the total number of mobile phones in use.
It just so happens that Comreg release quarterly reports with detailed information on the total SIM activation’s for the entire Irish mobile market and these reports provide for very interesting reading.
5.62 Million as of Q3, 2022
8.63 million total active SIMs
5.62 million active sims that are most likely mobile phone users.
Are there really 5.62 million people in Ireland?
This represents over half a million more people in Ireland than the 2022 Census preliminary results, so could this actually be true?
The Census occurred during the same period as the Q2, 2022 Comreg report and the figure then was 5.507 million, still an excess of over 400,000 compared to the Census preliminary figure of 5.1 million.
It does not seem outside of the realms of possibility that the population could be or close to 5.62 million and the dogs on the street think it has been understated for years.
However before such questions are better answered or teased out - the purpose right here is to demonstrate that the Irish people have funded both sides of a potentially more accurate dataset that might better indicate the real population levels of Ireland than than the CSO can muster using ancient methods as instituted by British Colonialists.
Maybe this is too bold a claim?
This substack believes it totally reasonable to assume nearly everyone has at least one active mobile phone for personal use and so, such a dataset holds the prospect of being a really valuable and rigorous data source, far too good to ignore when trying to get the most accurate up-to-date population figure.
Secondary to that but very important, the Census has an interval of 5 years and while it grabs more details, it then relies on estimates to plot the gaps. (This point will be revisited for reason of intrigue in a future substack).
Comreg very usefully track all the layers and segments of the mobile market and provide rich quarterly reports that fascinate, but deeper analysis is required to get a better picture, and so to round of this substack let’s go for some;
More Detail
Of the 8.62 million active SIM’s out there, a total of 2.516 million of these look to be non-human applications, machine usage and broadband.
Where the mobile-user population appears to reside in the figures comes under the following two group labels:
1) Mobile Subs. exc. MBB and M2M - Total
The Mobile phone subscriptions excluding Mobile Broadband and Machine 2 Machine Sim Total = 5,619,047 million.
2) Mobile Voice and Data Subs. (3G&4G Networks)
The Mobile Voice and Data Subscriptions on the 3G & 4G Networks has a similar but lower Total = 5,343,646 million.
Some other things to consider about these figures.
Counting SIM activation 1:1 probably overcounts the population numbers due to some market factors such as;
Dual sim phones
Work phones
Second personal mobile phones
At the time of writing there is no figure to hand to provide for the effect this grouped total has on the topline figures and so a best guess is to be applied by the reader.
Real Big Numbers
Now we have a working assumption, that ranges between 233,000 and 510,000 potential extra people in Ireland that may not have dawned on anyone or the Census even counted.
Meaning the total actual population may rest closer to somewhere in between the real big totals of 5.3 - 5.6 million (Q3, 2022.)
Does this seem more realistic or accurate to you?
It certainly provides much food for thought and may explain a lot of the never ending and present resource competition pressures from housing to hospitals.
Is that it?
For now yes, but there are still many questions posed by the Comreg mobile market data and what it might tell us about Ireland’s population, especially over time, and will naturally require more looking and digging, and so the next pass might revolve and intertwine around at least one of these two things:
The release of the Q4 2022 Comreg report finishing of the year ending 2022
SIM Vs PPS data set to see what we can see.
IF you found this a useful and informative inquiry into by how much #IrelandIsFull then consider sharing this substack post far and wide for the benefit of all, so anyone can try get a better handle on the reality of the situation we all face, instead of spin.
Reference: Q3 2022 comreg report and CSO Ireland.